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I appeared on Silvio Canto Jr's talk show from Dallas yesterday.  It's here.

JANUARY 26,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

AS THEY WERE SAYING – The New York Times wrote early last year:  "Officials canceled two Olympic test events last February in Sochi after several days of temperatures above 60 degrees Fahrenheit and a lack of snowfall had left ski trails bare and brown in spots. That situation led the climatologist Daniel Scott, a professor of global change and tourism at the University of Waterloo in Ontario, to analyze potential venues for future Winter Games. His thought was that with a rise in the average global temperature of more than 7 degrees Fahrenheit possible by 2100, there might not be that many snowy regions left in which to hold the Games. He concluded that of the 19 cities that have hosted the Winter Olympics, as few as 10 might be cold enough by midcentury to host them again. By 2100, that number shrinks to 6."  The reporter might visit New York and New England in the next few days.  We're exporting snow.

OBAMA APPROVAL UP – From The Hill:  "Half of Americans approve of President Obama's job performance for the first time in 19 months, according to a new poll released Monday.  It is the first time that Obama has held a 50 percent approval rating in the Gallup daily tracking poll since June 2013. He's now 5 percentage points above water, with 45 percent of Americans disapproving of his job performance."  It's depressing, considering Obama's dismal performance.  But I'm guessing events will overtake the president once more and send his numbers down to their usual levels.

A MYTH DEBUNKED – From Breitbart:  "It looks as though the Left and the mainstream media gathered in their hollowed-out volcano over the weekend to cook up another anti-science Narrative to destroy Clint Eastwood’s 'American Sniper.'  The latest lie is that the film is inspiring a surge of death threats against Muslims. A thorough search of the countless stories launched by this well-coordinated Narrative found exactly three Twitter examples in a country of nearly 350 million."  Americans reacted toward Muslims with great restraint after 9-11, and they are reacting with great restraint now.  The "death threats" surge appears to be propaganda.

ON GUARD, HO HUM – From The New York Times:  "WASHINGTON — A White House radar system designed to detect flying objects like planes, missiles and large drones failed to pick up a small drone that crashed into a tree on the South Lawn early Monday morning, according to law enforcement officials. The crash raised questions about whether the Secret Service could bring down a similar object if it endangered President Obama.  The drone, which was about two feet in diameter and weighed about two pounds, was operated by a government employee whom the Secret Service did not identify. The agency said the employee was flying the object near the White House around 3 a.m. for recreational purposes when he lost control of it. Officials did not explain why the man, who does not work at the White House and who has not been charged with a crime, was flying the drone at that hour."  Oh, come on.  Flying drones near the White House at 3 a.m. is a national tradition.  Everyone does it. 

January 26, 2015       Permalink

AMERICANS ARE MAKING A STATEMENT – AT 11:06 A.M. ET:  "American Sniper" is turning into a historic movie phenomenon.  From AP:

LOS ANGELES (AP) — “American Sniper” hit the mark with moviegoers again.

The military drama starring Bradley Cooper as Navy SEAL marksman Chris Kyle topped the box office for a second weekend in a row with $64.4 million in first place, according to studio estimates Sunday.

“American Sniper” is up for six Academy Awards, including best picture and best actor for Cooper. The total haul for the Warner Bros. film now stands at $200.1 million.

“We’ve never quite seen anything like this at this time of year,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at box-office tracker Rentrak. “‘American Sniper’ is helping to propel the box office, which is already 9.3 percent ahead of the same time last year.”

The film, directed by Clint Eastwood, already broke box-office records when it expanded to wide release last weekend, easily surpassing “Avatar” to become the biggest January opening for a movie and immediately becoming the top grosser among best-picture Oscar nominees.

In a distant second place, the saucy Universal thriller “The Boy Next Door” featuring Jennifer Lopez as a teacher who engages in an affair with a younger man played by Ryan Guzman, debuted with $15 million.

COMMENT:  I'm delighted to see a patriotic film become so popular.  We still have in America a population that respects the soldier and what he (or she) does for us. 

I had a chance over the weekend to see "Still Alice" on disk.  (As a Writers Guild member I get the top films sent to me each year.  Members can then vote on awards.)  The movie deals with a relatively young college professor facing Alzheimer's disease.  The performance by Julianne Moore, who's been nominated for an Oscar, is superb.  The movie is worth seeing for that alone.  In the end, Moore's performance is life-affirming rather than depressing.

I also recommend "The Imitation Game," which is the story of Alan Turing, the British scientist and mathematician who was one of the inventors of modern computing, and who was instrumental in breaking the Nazi Enigma code.  Terrific story, and a great performance by Benedict Cumberbatch (yes, that's his name).  One fine thing about the movie is that it explains computing in ways that a layman can easily understand.  Although the action takes place in the early 1940s, you can feel yourself Googling while watching the film.

January 26, 2015       Permalink

THAT WAS FAST – AT 10:03 A.M. ET:   Uh, let's see, the reset with Russia was a flop.  Ending the Iraq war was a flop.  The war on terror was supposed to be over, but isn't.  Now we have just what Obama really needs, another apparent failure.  Once again it's Cuba si, Yanqui no.  From AP: 

HAVANA - The start of talks on repairing 50 years of broken relations appears to have left President Raul Castro's government focused on winning additional concessions without giving in to U.S. demands for greater freedoms, despite the seeming benefits that warmer ties could have for the country's struggling economy.

Following the highest-level open talks in three decades between the two nations, Cuban officials remained firm in rejecting significant reforms pushed by the United States as part of President Barack Obama's surprise move to re-establish ties and rebuild economic relations with the Communist-led country.

"One can't think that in order to improve and normalize relations with the U.S., Cuba has to give up the principles it believes in," Cuba's top diplomat for U.S. affairs, Josefina Vidal, told The Associated Press after the end of the talks. "Changes in Cuba aren't negotiable."

What principles are those?  Keeping the Cuban people in slavery?  What a concept!

It's not clear if Cuba's tough stance is part of normal negotiation tactics or a hardened position that could prevent the talks from moving forward.

Hey, they're negotiating with Obama, Mr. Appeasement.  Why should they give in on anything?

The Obama administration has dedicated significant political capital to rapprochement, but closer ties with the economic giant to the north also could have major importance for Cuba, which saw growth slow sharply in 2014 and is watching with concern as falling oil prices slam Venezuela, which has been a vital source of economic support.

In a wide-ranging interview, Vidal said that before deciding whether to allow greater economic ties with the U.S., Cuba was seeking more answers about Obama's dramatic of loosening the half-century trade embargo.

COMMENT:  I'll bet Field Marshal Obama is prepared to give back Guantanamo.  That would electrify the Democratic Party left, and sicken the rest of the country.  But Obama ain't runnin' for nothin' no more.

January 26, 2015       Permalink

HILLARY THE LOSER? – AT 9:22 A.M. ET:  A recent poll showed Hillary Clinton beating any potential Republican challenger, but we argued here that the numbers weren't all that impressive.  In fact, they were flashing red for the Clinton campaign.  Andrew Malcolm of IBD has looked at the same numbers and adds his perspective.  Yes, Hillary has problems:

Well, that didn't take as long as expected.

In just the past month, when no one with a real life was thinking about the 2016 presidential race, Hillary Clinton's massive poll lead over every single potential Republican opponent has collapsed.

In a hypothetical match-up, her margin over Jeb Bush, the closest GOP president, was cut in half to eight points this month, 45%-37%, according to Zogby. That's down from a whopping 15-point lead in December. Similarly, the former first lady's 15-point margin over Mitt Romney slid to nine points, 46%-37%.

Still sizable margins, to be sure. But trending uncomfortably in the wrong direction even before an announcement, as Clinton goes to ground to plot her campaign, assemble staff and devise a credible rationale other than gender for why Americans should let her move back into the White House, this time in the West Wing.

Most Democrats won't take much convincing. She's her party's overwhelming heir apparent, which actually hasn't worked out too well in recent U.S. political history for Al Gore, John McCain, Romney or Hillary herself in 2008.

But she'll need to convince significant numbers of independents and even Republicans on a shifting political landscape that's been trending toward conservative states, both in the census and recent elections.

Even with veterans of the president's winning campaigns jumping over for Obama 3.0, that could be a hefty challenge given Clinton's quarter-century of public controversies; HillaryCare's website didn't fail, but that's because she didn't have one. Her brief Senate career was highlighted by nothing really.
And her four years as the well-traveled face of Obama's disastrous foreign policies that allowed Syria to decay into bloody chaos, Iraq to go it alone militarily, permitting ISIS to fester and spread, and post-Gaddafi Libya to become one large al-Qaida training camp.

Then there's the deadly Benghazi debacle with its inexplicable security lapses, still under investigation by a House Select committee.

COMMENT:  By 2016 Hillary Clinton will have been a national figure for more years than Franklin D. Roosevelt.  People simply may be tired of her.  And her absence of a record of true accomplishment, as noted by Andrew Malcolm, won't help.

We're being told that Hillary is readying her campaign.  Maybe she'll decide to spend more time with her grandchild instead.

January 26, 2015       Permalink

STUNNING – AT 8:55 A.M. ET:  The Iowa political beauty contest was held over the weekend.  The buzz is that Scott Walker emerged much, much stronger than before, and a virtual political unknown also scored heavily.  From the Washington Times: 

For the last several months, the likes of Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney, Ted Cruz and Rand Paul have dominated the media coverage of the still-nascent contest for the White House.

But when the 2016 Republican presidential race roared to life this weekend with twin events in Iowa and Louisiana, two lesser-known contestants left indelible impressions on the GOP faithful.

Former Hewlett-Packard chief executive and current American Conservative Union Foundation Chairwoman Carly Fiorina and battle-tested Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker left the crowds stirring after a nonstop ten-hour festival in Des Moines that exposed voters to 27 speakers and at least 10 GOP presidential hopefuls.

“Carly Fiorina, whom most people had never heard of, got the best response. She came across as a highly intelligent woman and a strong leader as the ex-chief executive of the biggest tech firm in the world,” said former Oklahoma GOP Chairman Gary Jones, who flew from his home state to the Iowa event. “She did herself the most good.”

Mr. Walker, who has won two election battles in the swing state of Wisconsin since taking on public unions, also did plenty to dispel perceptions he was an under-stated speaker lacking in charisma.

“Scott Walker was the other one who most improved his position, walking from one end of the stage to the other, with sleeves rolled up and no teleprompter, talking substance — what he would actually do as president,” Mr. Jones added. “We had heard he can be a lackluster speaker. He wasn’t.”

COMMENT:  Many political people with whom I've spoken believe that Walker is the real sleeper candidate, the one who'll keep creeping upward and will emerge as the man to beat.   He doesn't lose elections.  And, if he sees something needs fixing, he fixes it.  He was aware of his reputation as a so-so speaker, so he clearly fixed it.  A great governor and a very capable candidate.

Carly Fiorina is a highly impressive woman who served as CEO of Hewlett-Packard.  That is both a plus and a liability.  It's a great credit, but her performance was highly controversial, and she was forced out.  That will come up in the campaign.  She ran for the Senate from California against Barbara Boxer and lost, but no one holds that against her.   My guess is that she's running for vice president, and she may well be seen as a potential asset to the ticket.  We'll watch her work.

Again, I'm struck by the sheer depth of talent on the Republican side.  The Democrats are not as fortunate.

January 26,  2015     Permalink

JANUARY 25,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

GREECE DESCENDS – Greece has elected a radical leftist government, probably the most leftist in the modern history of Western Europe.   From CBS News:  "Greece elected a leader from the far left on Sunday. Alexis Tsipras ran on promises he'll re-write terms of Greece's international bailout. His victory could impact economies across the globe.  It's been a while since the Greeks have had anything to celebrate. But the voters have spoken and their message: enough is enough with the austerity measures.  'People are fed up,' said Giorgios Cosmos. 'They're hungry, literally hungry. I'm 72 years old and all I have in my pocket is seven euros.'  Roaring to victory, leftist leader Alexis Tsipras, the 40-year-old firebrand who tapped into the pure fury shown by widespread demonstrations."  A dangerous moment.  The new government seems a bit nuts.  It cannot reverse Greece's austerity without running right into the European Union and financial reality.  This has to be watched closely.  Greece can damage the rest of the European economy, and, ultimately, ours.

IRAN HARDLINERS UPSET – The very people Obama trusts to carry out a nuclear agreement are upset that the Iranian foreign minister took a walk with John Kerry.  From Reuters:  "DUBAI - Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif is to appear before parliament following controversy over a promenade with his American counterpart during intense nuclear negotiations in Geneva, state media reported on Sunday.  Zarif, who leads Tehran's talks with 'P5+1' - the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China - had a 15-minute walk down Geneva sidewalks with US Secretary of State John Kerry during discussions on Jan. 14 aimed at reaching a settlement of the 12-year nuclear dispute between Iran and the West.  Media images of the top diplomats from old adversaries strolling together in a foreign land provoked an outcry among Iranian hard-liners deeply wary of rapprochement with the 'Great Satan."  And if those hardliners get nuclear weapons?  Obama doesn't want to think about that.  But it should keep him up at night.

OH PLEASE – "American Sniper" has been accused of just about everything.  Now it's accused of raising the danger for Muslims in America.  Somehow, I don't think so.  From Reuters:  "CHICAGO (Reuters) - An Arab-American civil rights organization has asked 'American Sniper' director Clint Eastwood and actor Bradley Cooper to denounce hateful language directed at U.S. Arabs and Muslims after the release of the film about a Navy marksman.  The American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee (ADC) said in a letter to Eastwood and Cooper that its members had become targets of 'violent threats' since early last week, before 'American Sniper' went into general release. The letter said Eastwood and Cooper, the film's producer and star, could bolster the ADC's message of tolerance."  Oh, come on.  There are always a certain number of threats.  This is just an attempt to co-opt some Hollywood personalities. 

January 25, 2015       Permalink 

YEMEN BECOMING A LEMON – AT 12:17 P.M. ET:  Ah yes, I remember it well.  It was only months ago when Field Marshal Obama was touting Yemen as an American success story.  Now the place has all the internal stability of a Hollywood marriage.  From Reuters: 

(Reuters) - No sooner had Yemeni President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi announced his resignation than his country's tenuous political fabric began to disintegrate.

Provinces across a nation barely held together by a complex web of tribal and religious alliances said they would no longer take military commands from Sanaa after the Iranian-allied Shi'ite Houthi group besieged Hadi's home and palace this week.

The emerging fragmentation of the Arabian Peninsula country has sparked fears of the "Somalisation" of a state which is home to a revitalised al Qaeda insurgency as well as a neighbour to top oil exporter Saudi Arabia.

For Washington, Yemen's splintering would make it hard to carry out a counter-terrorism strategy against al Qaeda plotters who have targeted it and its ally Saudi Arabia and claimed responsibility for the Jan. 7 Charlie Hebdo attacks in Paris.

Through Hadi, a supporter of U.S. drone strikes on al Qaeda, Yemen was a top U.S. ally in the Washington's fight against islamist militancy.

For Yemen's neighbours, especially Saudi Arabia, the rise of the Houthis resembles yet another fallen domino in capitals where allies of regional rival Iran have risen to power - including Damascus, Beirut and Baghdad.

COMMENT:  Won't you sleep better tonight knowing that Barack Obama is president?  Well...uh...you can get sleeping pills at Walgreen's.  That may help.

January 25, 2015       Permalink

UKRAINE IN FLAMES – AT 10:26 A.M. ET:  For some reason, this has become the forgotten front.  But Ukraine is at least as important as the Mideast.  It borders Russia.  It borders NATO countries.   And Russia wants to control it.  From The Los Angeles Times:   

Thirty civilians were killed and102 wounded in missile attacks Saturday on Mariupol, an industrial center and seaport in southeast Ukraine, officials said.

The Grad missiles struck a day after Donetsk region pro-Russia separatist leader Alexander Zakharchenko said his forces were launching a wide-ranging offensive.

“This is a crime against humanity to be tried by the Hague tribunal,” Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said in a statement condemning the attack.

U.S. Secretary of State John F. Kerry also denounced the assault. “It is reprehensible that the separatists are publicly glorifying this and other offensives,” he said in a statement. He said the attacks were “aided and abetted by Russia’s irresponsible and dangerous decision to resupply” the separatists in recent weeks.

Kerry has noticed that Russia is an enemy.  I wonder what the boss man thinks.

About 60 missiles landed in eastern Mariupol in a pair of attacks, one in the morning and the other about four hours later, Donetsk regional deputy police chief Ilya Kiva said.

“Several streets, many residential houses and two food markets were hit. This being a Saturday morning, many people were at home or outside,” Kiva said in a phone interview. “Whole families died either in their apartment or in the street strolling or going to the market.”

Kiva said he had no doubt that it was intentional, given the accuracy of the second salvo. “The nearest Ukrainian army checkpoint outside the city is about [3 miles] from the place, and the terrorists know well where it is, because they have already shot at it many times in the last three days.”

COMMENT:  If the situation deteriorates, the West may have a very grave decision to make – whether to intervene militarily.  We cannot accept a takeover by pro-Russian elements.

This has to be happening in part because the Russians and their allies see the West as unwilling to do anything much to save Ukraine.  The coming weeks may be critical.  The mess in the Mideast is drawing American attention away from Ukraine, and Putin knows it.

January 25, 2015       Permalink

OBAMA IN INDIA – AT 10:01 A.M. ET:  Obama has arrived in India for a state visit.  India, in recent decades, has been moving closer to the West.  I hope Obama doesn't ruin it.  From London's Daily Mail: 

President Barack Obama has paid his respects to civil rights icon Mahatma Gandhi during his state visit to India this weekend.

The President threw rose petals at Raj Ghat, the memorial for India's independence icon in New Delhi, after being given a warm welcome by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

President Obama opened a historic three-day visit to India by hugging Prime Minister Modi has he disembarked Air Force One.

COMMENT:  I'm sure Obama identifies with Gandhi.  They're cut from the same cloth.  Both are among the most overestimated leaders of the last century.  Gandhi is hyped (big time) as the father of modern non-violent resistance...but Gandhi was fighting the British for control of India.  Had he been fighting the Nazis or Communists he would have disappeared in a day, along with nonviolence.  He was lucky in his enemy.

Obama is the father of nothing.  But he, too, is a glorified child in his view of the world.  Well, maybe we can call him the father of leftist fantasies.

While India is warming to the West, its leaders must also be appalled by the weakness of the current American government. 

January 25,  2015     Permalink